According to the OECD, 'Inflation measured by consumer price index (CPI) is defined as the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services that are typically purchased by specific groups of households.' The US central bank, Federal Reserve, emphasizes core inflation that excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Additional information here.

According to the OECD, ' This indicator is measured in numbers of unemployed people as a percentage of the labour force and it is seasonally adjusted.' Additional information here.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated monthly. The index seeks to measure changes in the total value of all existing single-family housing stock. Additional information. here.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated monthly. The index seeks to measure changes in the total value of all existing single-family housing stock. Additional information. here.

Lenders are surveyed weekly on mortgage rates on popular loans. The survey is based on first - lien prime conventional conforming home purchase mortgages with a loan - to - value of 80 percent. Lenders are comprised of thrifts, credit unions, commercial banks and mortgage lending companies. Additional information here.

The U.S. Census defines a 'start' as occurring when excavation begins for the footings or foundation of a building. All housing units in a multifamily building are defined as being started when this excavation begins. Beginning with data for September 1992, estimates of housing starts include units in structures being totally rebuilt on an existing foundation. Additional information here.

The WEI is an index of ten indicators of real economic activity, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. It represents the common component of series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production. The WEI is composed of ten underlying series: (1) the Redbook same-store retail sales index, (2) the Rasmussen Consumer Index, (3) the continuing unemployment insurance claims, (4) the American Staffing Association Index of temporary and contract employment, (5) federal tax withholding data, (6) new unemployment insurance claims, (7) U.S. steel production, (8) U.S. electricity output, (9) fuel sales (10) total railroad traffic. Additional information here.

According to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, 'the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high observation frequency. The index uses the following economic indicators: weekly initial jobless claims, monthly payroll employment, monthly industrial production, monthly real personal income less transfer payments, monthly real manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP. The average value of the ADS index is zero. Progressively bigger positive values indicate progressively better-than-average conditions, whereas progressively more negative values indicate progressively worse-than-average conditions.' Additional information here.

According to the New York Fed, 'this model uses the slope of the yield curve, or 'term spread,' to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead. Here, the term spread is defined as the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates.' One article notes that the yield curve is simple to use and significantly outperforms other indicators when looking two to six quarters ahead. Additional information here.

According to Jeremy Piger, the 'monthly smoothed recession probabilities are calculated from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.'

For interpretation, 'three consecutive months of smoothed probabilities above 80% has been a reliable signal of the start of a new recession, while three consecutive months of smoothed probabilities below 20% has been a reliable signal of the start of a new expansion.' Additional information here.

Founded in 1946 and performed by the University of Michigan, the Survey of Consumers gives insight as to consumer and spending decisions. The survey's ability to predict consumer behavior led to its inclusion in the Leading Indicator Composite Index, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce. The series is one month behind at the author's request. Additional information here.

Commonly known as the fear index or fear gauge , the VIX is published by the Chicago Board of Exchange. According to the CBOE, 'The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500 Index (SPX) call and put options. On a global basis, it is one of the most recognized measures of volatility -- widely reported by financial media and closely followed by a variety of market participants as a daily market indicator.' Additional information here.

The numerator is the total market capitalization and calculated by multiplying the share price by the number of shares outstanding for listed domestic companies. The denominator is the country's GDP.The measure is sometimes referred to as the 'Buffet Indicator' after famed US investor Warren Buffet. Additional information here.