General:


6.2%

Infl. all item: USA

4.6%

Oct. monthly unemployment rate: USA

Households


Housing


271

Case-Shiller Home Price Idx.

387,271

Median Sale Price

3.55

30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

1.7 million

Total Housing Units Started

Leading


7.65

Weekly Economic Idx.

-.195

ADS Business Conditions Index

14.4%

Recession Probability - Yield Curve

1.82%

Recession Probability - Chavet & Piger

Sentiment


72.8

Consumer Sentiment

65%

Individuals Expecting Gain in Dow

-17.5%

AAII Bull (+) / Bear (-) Spread

27.66

VIX Fear Gauge

Stocks


194%

U.S. Stock Mkt. to GDP

$444 Billion

FINRA Net Margin Debt

general

OECD GDP Total


Country:

About


According to the OECD, Gross domestic product (GDP) is the standard measure of the value added created through the production of goods and services in a country during a certain period. GDP as a measure of overall economic success is frequently criticized. The OECD noted, "it falls short of providing a suitable measure of people's material well-being for which alternative indicators may be more appropriate." More information can be found on the OECD webpage.

Research


Coyle, Diane. GDP: A Brief but Affectionate History, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873630

Frequency


Published monthly.

Citation


OECD (2022), Gross domestic product (GDP) (indicator). doi: 10.1787/dc2f7aec-en (Accessed on 11 February 2022)

OECD GDP Per Capita


Country:

About


Per capita GDP is a global measure for gauging the prosperity of nations and is used by economists, along with GDP, to analyze the prosperity of a country based on its economic growth. The data above are reported with Purchasing Power Parity in U.S. dollars to account for the costs of living among the different countries. For additional information, see the Wikipedia article on nominal GDP.

Research


-

Frequency


Published monthly.

Citation


OECD (2022), "GDP per capita and productivity levels", OECD Productivity Statistics (database), https://doi.org/10.1787/data-00686-en (accessed on 12 February 2022).

OECD Inflation Prices


Country:

Indicator:

OECD Unemployment Rate


Country:

Indicator:

households

Quarterly Report of Household Debt and Credit


About


This data is published by the New York Federal Reserve and is maintained by the Center for Microeconomic Data. The effort is one of two main data collection efforts: the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The quarterly report contains 20+ charts on the state of household debt and credit. The above chart is only one of many.

Research


Lee, Donghoon and van der Klaauw, H. Wilbert, An Introduction to the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (November 1, 2010). FRB of New York Staff Report No. 479, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1719116 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1719116

Frequency


Published quarterly.

Citation


OECD (2022), "GDP per capita and productivity levels", OECD Productivity Statistics (database), https://doi.org/10.1787/data-00686-en (accessed on 12 February 2022).

Quarterly Report of Household Delinquency


About


This data is published by the New York Federal Reserve and is maintained by the Center for Microeconomic Data. The effort is one of two main data collection efforts: the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The quarterly report contains 20+ charts on the state of household debt and credit. The above chart is only one of many.

Research


Lee, Donghoon and van der Klaauw, H. Wilbert, An Introduction to the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (November 1, 2010). FRB of New York Staff Report No. 479, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1719116 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1719116

Frequency


Published quarterly.

Citation


OECD (2022), "GDP per capita and productivity levels", OECD Productivity Statistics (database), https://doi.org/10.1787/data-00686-en (accessed on 12 February 2022).

Quarterly Report of Household Delinquency


About


This data is published by the New York Federal Reserve and is maintained by the Center for Microeconomic Data. The effort is one of two main data collection efforts: the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel (CCP) and the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The quarterly report contains 20+ charts on the state of household debt and credit. The above chart is only one of many.

Research


Lee, Donghoon and van der Klaauw, H. Wilbert, An Introduction to the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel (November 1, 2010). FRB of New York Staff Report No. 479, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1719116 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1719116

Frequency


Published quarterly.

Citation


-

housing

Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA)

Redfin National Housing Data


Property Type:

Name:

Mortgage Rates - Freddie Mac

Total U.S. Housing Starts

leading

Weekly Economic Index (WEI)

ADS Business Conditions

Treasury Yield Curve

Piger Recession Probability

sentiment

Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Survey (UMCSENT)

Yale Management Investor Confidence Survey

About


Yale Management School publishes several investor confidence surveys, originally conceived and designed by Robert J Shiller, the famed Yale economist. Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui of Japan also assisted in the collection of the data. Two groups are surveyed: wealthy individual investors and institutional investors. The surveys are conducted monthly and the results are reported as an average of the six previous months surveys. Each group typically returns one hundred surveys resulting in a standard error of plus or minus five percent.


The question verbatim is as follows: "How much of a change in percentage terms do you expect in the following (use a plus sign before your number to indicate an expected increase, or minus sign to indicate an expected decrease, leave blanks where you do not know):"

  • 1 month
  • in 3 months
  • in 6 months
  • in 1 year
  • in 10 years

The plot above reports the six month average of individual and institutional investors' percentage estimate of the gain or loss in the Dow Jones Index in one year.

Research


Shiller, Robert J. "Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence." Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets 1, 1 (2000): 49-60.

Shiller, Robert, J. 2003. "From Efficient Markets Theory to Behavioral Finance ." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17 (1): 83-104.

AAII Investor Sentiment

About


According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), its members answer the same simple question each week and have done so since 1987. (Only results from 2000 are published here.) The results are referred to as the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey and give insight as to individual investors' perception of the market. The weekly survey is widely followed with financial publications like Barron's and Bloomberg publishing the results. The question reads, 'Do they feel the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral) or down (bearish)?'



The chart above takes the percentage of respondents responding that they are bullish over the next six months and subtracts the percentage of those responding that they are bearish. Where bulls exceed bears, then the number is positive and, where bears exceed bulls, the number is negative.

Research


Fisher, Kenneth L., and Meir Statman. "Investor sentiment and stock returns." Financial Analysts Journal 56.2 (2000): 16-23.

Brown, Gregory W., and Michael T. Cliff. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market." Journal of empirical finance 11.1 (2004): 1-27.

VIX -- Market Volatility Indicator

stocks

Market Cap as % of GDP


Country:

Indicator: